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(Solved) Crystal Ball Data Workbook Variables Name: Value: Last Var Column Worksheet Data Last Data Column Used 0 2 Sheet Ref Sheet Guid...


Use the current values in the Wind Energy model with RVs (Random Variables) to answer the following questions.

Of course, you will have to change the values that are essential to each question asked. Following each question restore the model to its original values.


Q1    Consider this wind turbine to cost $1,000,000. What is the effect on profit for a 1 mph increase in average windspeed?




Q2    Consider this wind turbine to cost $1,000,000. What is the effect on profit for a 1 mph increase in the volatility (standard deviation) of windspeed?




Q3    Returning to the original values, assume the rotor diameter is 100ft. Further assume that the PV of the cash flows equals the cost of the turbine making this a neutral undertaking. For $20,000 extra, however, you can have a rotor diameter of 120ft. Should you proceed with the 120ft. rotor? Explain.

            

Crystal Ball Data
Workbook Variables
Name:
Value: Last Var Column Worksheet Data Last Data Column Used 0 2
Sheet Ref Sheet Guid
44a9ea14-b1ae-4324-bd64-94327e66685a
Deleted sheet count Last row used
26 Data blocks Parameters 55
20 Temp - Normal - Mean
Temp - Normal - Std Dev 2 Wind Speed (miles per ho 0. 8542 Wind Speed (meters per second) 36 Temperature (Fahrenheit 275. 30 Temperature (Kelvin) 10
2 Wind - Weibull - B Mean
Wind - Weibull - CStd Dev 8. 86
4. 63 $0. 10 Value of kW-H
132,385 Avg Power (W) 132,385Avg Power AIR
DENSITY SITE
FACTORS 0 WIND Cut-In
Cu t-Of 0 SWEPT AREA 1300 Elevation (feet) 396. 24 Elevation (meters) Air Density at Site 1. 2207
Air Density from Baseline Values 1. 2251
Site Scaling Factor
0. 85 1. 00 288. 15 Baseline Temperature (K)
0. 00 Baseline Elevation (m) 1. 2251 Baseline Air Densi ty (kg/m3 ) Wind Speed (meters per second) from SITE FACTORS 6 Cut-In (mph, miles per hour) 34 Cut-Off (mph, miles per hour) POWER DENSITY (W/m 2)
300 Rotor Diameter (ft) 91. 4400 Rotor Diameter (m)
6567 Swept Area (m 2) 0 POWER (WATTS) 0 POWER (WATTS) 0. 30 Factor due to Turbine Inefficiencies $13. 24 A, $/hr
10%
15 r, r per yr
T, lifetime (yrs) 900,933
PV =A ×
((e^rT−1)/(re^rT
))

 


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