(Solved) Review - Test 2 The second examination would be available online in Blackboard during 8 am, Friday (May 12) - 11:59 pm, Saturday (May 13). The grades...

This is a review for forecasting with questions. Ones with questions? please answer those. Ones without question mark try to provide formulas.


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Review – Test 2 The second examination would be available online in Blackboard during
8 am, Friday (May 12) – 11:59 pm, Saturday (May 13). The grades will
be available on Monday (May 15). Please note that it is your
responsibility to have an extremely reliable and high speed internet
connection to take the examination.
This examination will consists of two parts which will be marked as
“Examination2_Part1” and “Examination2_Part2” in the Blackboard in
the folder, “Examinations.”
The first part will contain 10 questions on the analysis of historical data
on financial markets and the second part will contain 10 questions on
interpretation of forecasting estimation results i.e., a total of 20
questions. Each question will have equal weight for grading (i.e., 5
points). The duration of both the parts will be 2 hours each i.e., a total of
4 hours. These two separate two hours duration cannot be combined.
A brief description of the topic to be included in part 1 and 2 are given
below. I would encourage you to study all the material presented in the
face to face sessions and do not rely solely on these reviews for
examination preparation. This review is just a guide to structure your
preparation.
Part 1: Analysis of Historical Information (10 Questions)
Conceptual
1. What is Univariate Forecasting? 2. What is Multivariate Forecasting? 3. What are cross-sectional data? 4. What are time series data? 5. What are panel data? 6. How is forecast validation done? 7. What are leading indicators?
Quantitative
Monthly time-series data on prices of four financial assets would be
provided. Calculate the following: 1. Mean monthly return 2. Risk (standard deviation) 3. Correlations 4. Mean Absolute Error based on moving average forecasting. 5. Mean Absolute Percentage Error based on a moving average forecasting. 1 Part 2: Interpretation of Forecasting Estimation Results (10 Questions)
Conceptual
1. What is a dependent variable in forecasting? 2. What is an independent variable in forecasting? 3. What are residuals in forecasting? 4. How leading indicators are used while choosing variables for
forecasting? 5. What is the main concept of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method of
forecasting? 6. What does R-square of a regression tells us? 7. What kind of correlation should exist between dependent and
independent variables while forecasting? 8. What kind of correlation should exist among independent variables
while forecasting?
Quantitative 1. Estimation result of a simple regression analysis (one independent
variable) would be provided. a. Interpret the parameters b. Interpret the R-square c. Compute the forecasted price of the dependent variable if the
independent variable is expected to change by some percentage. d. Compute the expected change in price of the dependent variable if the
independent variable is expected to change by some percentage. e. Compute the forecasted price of the dependent variable based on the
expected price of the independent variable.
2. Estimation result of a multiple regression analysis (three independent
variables) would be provided. a. Interpret the parameters b. Interpret the R-square c. Compute the forecasted price of the dependent variable based on the expected prices of independent variables.

 


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