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(Solved) Collins bases his argument on the "prime principle of confirmation," which says that "whenever we are considering two competing


Collins bases his argument on the "prime principle of confirmation," which says that "whenever we are considering two competing hypotheses, an observation counts as evidence in favor of the hypothesis under which the observation has the highest probability." So, suppose I buy a lottery ticket, and suppose that, out of one million tickets, I win. On the hypothesis that the lottery is fair, the probability of my winning is one in a million. On the hypothesis that my favorite uncle was in charge of the lottery and rigged it so I would win, the probability of my winning is 100%. So, according to Collins's principle, the observation that I won counts in favor of the hypothesis that the lottery was rigged in my favor, over the hypothesis that I just won by chance. So, if Collins's argument for the theistic hypothesis is convincing, shouldn't we likewise be convinced, whenever anyone wins a lottery, that it was rigged in their favor?

 


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